COVID-19, Online Security and the Canadian Telecom Market.

At no time in recent history has online security been so vital. This was true even at the outset of 2020 when the extent of the havoc being since caused by the nova corona virus (COVID-19) had not been anticipated. As a result, growth forecasts were based on business activity continuing more or less as normal. Now approaching mid-year, we need to consider all possible ramifications for the balance of this year as well as into 2021 and beyond.

Clearly, there has been severe short-term economic contraction and in mid-May, the venerable C.D. Howe institute declared Canada to be in a recession. While an optimistic view sees a possible recovery starting sometime in Q3 and continuing into 2021, not all sectors will benefit. Nevertheless, while the service, hospitality and airline industries have ground to a near standstill, and the oil & gas sector crippled and some businesses likely never the same again, agriculture, healthcare and utilities remain relatively unaffected. Retail, manufacturing and construction companies are experiencing short-term pain, and some will be permanently defunct. But, many will rebound (some more quickly, some less) as production ramps up and inventories get sold. Meanwhile, finance, government and telecommunications firms have experienced significant upticks and will continue to do so in the short- to medium-term as some workers are forced to telecommute and others rely on employment insurance and other assistance programs.

So, what does this all mean in the context of the telecommunications industry that is a cornerstone of the digital economy, now more than ever with telework and peak loads on the rise?. Churn is expected to be slower than usual, since customers will want to avoid any associated business disruption, but this would not significantly affect revenues significantly – at least in the long term post a re-jigging of service plans to accommodate increased broadband consumption. Communication companies including, carriers, telcos and cablecos, already provided the network access to many customers; increased traffic due to remote access requirements has allowed these companies to tout their advantage as full-service providers with the flexibility to adjust networks in a timely fashion.

Looking forward, people who successfully and efficiently work from home or other remote locations will likely continue to do so – and in increasing numbers. While this trend will reduce demand for office space, the need to secure devices and their multitude of connections to the enterprise will grow ever more important. Not only will the increasing number of devices pose additional security threats but so will the multitude of broadband accesses, whether they be wired or wireless. As a result, we expect the Enterprise Mobility Management (EMM) Market to benefit from this trend. We are revisiting this market in detail in a 2020 update of our previous report on the subject.

The pandemic has also brought the digital divide into sharp relief. While most urban residents have affordable access to fast reliable Internet access, many in rural communities do not. And, this shortfall applies also to those living near major population centres but who, for various reasons, have seemingly been neglected in the fibre roll-out that has taken place over the past few years. This, despite numerous promises by successive federal governments to provide service to all Canadians and deem it an essential service. Time after time budgets have included tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to fund rural broadband but, by and large, much of this money never gets spent. Only Saskatchewan, tired of waiting, has pushed ahead to provide service to all but the most remote communities. The post-COVID world will be radically different from what we have become used to; reliable capable broadband will play a major role. But, it must be available to everyone, regardless of their financial status or their location.

Finally, the network itself. Despite some early misgivings, the Cloud and Internet and the connections to it have held up remarkable well. In fact, almost all components have functioned admirably, with only occasional slowdowns reported. But, as we move ahead into this growing virtual world, ever more capacity will be required. And, to meet that need, data centres will need to grow, and new ones constructed. Unfortunately, the pandemic has interrupted supply chains, thereby putting a strain on expansion plans. Nevertheless, we expect some improvement in the second half of 2020 as economies start to reopen.

Digital or cyber security is no longer a luxury. It is an essential component for every business, large or small to counter constant attacks on the Internet-driven economy. And while an individual could suffer indignity and possible financial loss to a hacker, a company’s very existence could be at risk from its own as well as its employees’ mobile devices.

Not all companies need the same type or level of protection of their employees’ personal information, company email and customer data. Small, private firms engaged in general commercial and professional activities have little interest in recommending, much less providing or controlling, employees’ mobile devices. On the other hand, large financial institutions, government departments, hospitals and manufacturers, for example, need to be very careful as to what information is accessible to customers, employees and the public at large. In between are the small-to-medium enterprises that are increasingly concerned with unauthorized access to their valuable data. The degree of accessibility and restriction dictates the type of solution necessary for a particular EMM policy.